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05/20/2010 - Elmont, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Madrid, a Belmont Stakes candidate, faded down the stretch Thursday at Belmont Park in his first race in more than a month. The three-year-old colt was using the optional claiming event as a prep for the final leg in the Triple Crown.
Trained by Tim Ice, New Madrid and jockey John Velazquez took the lead coming out of the gate in the 1 1/8-mile turf contest. The colt ws making his first start since finishing sixth to Line of David in the Arkansas Derby. This was just his fifth career start.
New Madrid, owned by Shortleaf Stable, set the pace up the backstretch with Syo Defenceman to the inside in second. Spanish Art, the 2-1 favorite, was racing off the pace in sixth while 3-1 second choice Elusive Beat was running last.
Around the turn for home Kindergarden Kid made a sweeping move and took the lead heading into the stretch. New Madrid, 6-1 on the tote board, and Syo Defenceman both faded down the stretch.
Kindergarden Kid, ridden by Cornelio Velasquez, held off a late running Cherokee Speed to win the grass race by three-quarters of a length. Spanish Art finished third followed by Elusive Beat, New Madrid, Wild Entry and Syo Defenceman.
Sent off at 7-1, Kindergarden Kid covered the 1 1/8-miles in 1:49.74 on a firm turf course.
In other Belmont Stakes news, Stay Put had his final Churchill Downs work in preparation for the 1 1/2-mile Test of Champions on Saturday, June 5. The chestnut colt worked six furlongs in 1:14 with jockey Jamie Theriot. The three-year-old is owned by Bertram, Richard and Elaine Klein, and trained by Steve Margolis.
"It was very good. Jamie said he finished well and I got him galloping out in 1:28 and a mile in 1:42," Margolis said. "He will ship to Belmont next Thursday, train Friday and then work a half-mile Saturday or Sunday. We always thought he had talent. Jamie says he never seems to get tired and his Derby Day race was impressive in the way he did it."
Stay Put won an allowance race at Churchill Downs that began the May 1 program. The colt was fifth in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds.
Preakness runner-up First Dude, trained by Dale Romans, is scheduled to leave Louisville on Friday for a possible start in the Belmont Stakes. Owned by Donald Dizney, First Dude was 23-1 in the Preakness after finishing fifth in the Florida Derby to Ice Box and third to Stately Victor in the Blue Grass Stakes.
A pair of Belmont Stakes probables have been withdrawn from consideration. Dublin and Setsuko will not be entered in the race.
Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Dublin was seventh in the Kentucky Derby and fifth in the Preakness. His defection means that no horse will have started in all three Triple Crown races this year.
Setsuko, Santa Anita Derby runner-up, has inflammation in his ankles and will remain in California. Trained by Richard Mandella, the colt was second in the Sham Stakes in March, but did not have enough graded stakes earnings to enter the Kentucky Derby. On April 30 he was fourth in the American Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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