Cardinals Can Extend Rare Playoff Trip vs. Falcons

Football Betting Lines

01/02/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It didn't take long for the Atlanta Falcons to restore themselves back to respectability following a lost season. Fans of the Arizona Cardinals, on the other hand, have had to wait for what seems like an eternity to see their team in the playoffs.

The Cardinals will host their first postseason game since the franchise moved to Arizona this Saturday, when the upstart Falcons invade University of Phoenix Stadium for an NFC Wild Card round matchup.

Arizona ended a 10-year postseason drought by posting a 9-7 record, good enough for first place in the soft NFC West division and the fourth seed in the conference tournament. It's the club's first winning campaign since 1998, a year when the Cards made the playoffs as a Wild Card and scored an upset over Dallas in the opening round.

The Cardinals, who relocated from St. Louis to Phoenix in 1988, last played a postseason contest at home all the way back in 1947, when the team was then located in Chicago and hosted that year's NFL Championship Game.

While Arizona may be neophytes to the playoffs, it does have a quarterback with plenty of experience in January games. Kurt Warner led the St. Louis Rams to a world title with an MVP season in 1999, then earned the coveted award again two years later while guiding his team to another Super Bowl appearance.

The 37-year-old, who owns a 5-2 record in seven lifetime postseason starts, enjoyed a terrific late-career renaissance in 2008. With Warner at the controls, the Arizona offense ranked second in the NFL in passing yards and third overall with a club-record 427 points.

Atlanta has taken a different approach to produce one of the year's Cinderella stories. The Falcons have relied on the talents of rookie quarterback Matt Ryan and a punishing running game headlined by offseason pickup Michael Turner to generate an 11-5 record, a seven-game improvement from a calamitous 2007 season which saw star signal-caller Michael Vick incarcerated for his involvement in a dogfighting ring and then-head coach Bobby Petrino walk away from the mess with three games still to play.

Ryan, who threw for 3,440 yards and 16 touchdowns while starting all 16 games, was a runaway choice for the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year honor. Turner, a former backup in San Diego acquired through free agency, finished second in the league with 1,699 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns in his first go- around as a feature back.

The Falcons will be making their first foray into the playoffs since a Vick- led squad reached the NFC Championship Game in 2004. Atlanta had three straight non-winning seasons prior to this year's breakthrough.

The winner of Saturday's clash advances to next weekend's NFC Divisional Playoffs and will visit either the top-seeded New York Giants or the NFC South champion Carolina Panthers.

SERIES HISTORY

The Cardinals lead the all-time series with the Falcons, 14-10, snapping a four-game losing streak against Atlanta with a 30-27 overtime win at University of Phoenix Stadium in Week 16 of last season. The Falcons defeated the Cardinals four times between 1999 and 2006, with the most recent matchup in that string coming in 32-10 fashion at the Georgia Dome in 2006. Atlanta last won at Arizona in 2001, when it came away from Sun Devil Stadium with a 34-14 win.

Cardinals head coach, Atlanta native, and Georgia Tech alumnus Ken Whisenhunt is 1-0 against the Falcons, for whom he played 55 games as a tight end between 1985 and 1988. Atlanta's Mike Smith will be meeting both Whisenhunt and the Cardinals for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE FALCONS HAVE THE BALL

Atlanta has rode the powerful legs of Turner (1699 rushing yards, 17 TD, 6 receptions) all throughout their remarkable season, with the burly back recording a league-high 376 carries over the 16-game schedule. The Pro Bowl honoree proved he's still got plenty left in the tank last Sunday, as Turner bulldozed his way to 208 yards on 25 attempts in a 31-27 win over St. Louis in the regular-season finale. Backup Jerious Norwood (489 rushing yards, 36 receptions, 6 total TD) made a huge impact as well, with the speedster delivering the go-ahead touchdown with a late 45-yard scamper and adding a 92- yard kickoff return that set up another score. The Falcons averaged a healthy 152.7 yards per game on the ground for the year, the second-highest figure in the NFL.

Ryan (3440 passing yards, 16 TD, 11 INT) has played like an established veteran for the majority of his excellent debut season, although the 23-year- old has endured some rough patches down the stretch. Five of his 11 interceptions have come over Atlanta's last four games, and the ex-Boston College star completed just 10-of-21 passes and was picked off twice by the Rams last weekend. The primary playmaker among the receiving corps is Roddy White (88 receptions, 1382 yards, 7 TD), who's come through with seven 100- yard efforts this year en route to a well-deserved Pro Bowl nod. Former first- round pick Michael Jenkins (50 receptions, 3 TD) has also recorded a career year at the other wide receiver spot, while an unheralded offensive line allowed Ryan to be sacked a scant 17 times over the course of the regular season.

Atlanta's young triggerman will get to attack an Arizona secondary that has been very much a sore spot this season. The Cardinals rank 22nd in pass defense (220.4 ypg) and have surrendered a league-high 36 touchdowns through the air, and were torched for 345 yards and three scores by New England's Matt Cassel in a forgettable 47-7 loss to the Patriots in Week 16. The team does have some capable pass rushers in defensive end Travis LaBoy (31 tackles, 4 sacks), who's expected to play after missing the last two weeks with an ankle sprain, outside linebacker Chike Okeafor (60 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT) and tackle Darnell Dockett (49 tackles, 4 sacks). They'll be counted on to pressure Ryan and help out cornerbacks Roderick Hood (40 tackles, 1 INT, 14 PD) and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (42 tackles, 4 INT, 19 PD).

Expect the Cardinals to often employ strong safety Adrian Wilson (75 tackles, 2 INT, 2.5 sacks), an accomplished run stopper, close to the line of scrimmage on Saturday in an attempt to neutralize Turner. The hard-hitting Pro Bowl selection is the standout of Arizona's defensive backfield, with athletic weakside linebacker Karlos Dansby (119 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INT) the premier performer among the front seven. The Cards have been generally solid in defending the run, allowing an average of 110.3 rushing yards per game (16th overall) and 4.0 yards per attempt.

WHEN THE CARDINALS HAVE THE BALL

With a two-time NFL MVP in Warner (4583 passing yards, 30 TD, 14 INT) under center and three pass-catchers that surpassed 1,000 receiving yards this season running routes, the Cardinals' prolific aerial attack can be a daunting challenge for any team to defend. Warner completed over 67 percent of his throws and had seven games with over 300 passing yards in a brilliant comeback year, while Pro Bowlers Larry Fitzgerald (96 receptions, 1431 yards, 12 TD) and Anquan Boldin (89 receptions, 1038 yards, 11 TD) are both big and sure- handed wideouts who present matchup problems for enemy secondaries. Boldin sat out the final two regular-season tests with a shoulder sprain, but the rugged receiver will be ready for his first career playoff game. No. 3 wide receiver Steve Breaston (77 receptions, 1006 yards, 3 TD) is a dangerous target as well for an offense that's averaging 292.1 yards per game via the air. Warner's one weakness is a lack of mobility within the pocket, and he fumbled 12 times in his 16 starts.

Atlanta's best chance of slowing down the Cardinals' passing game will be to turn premier disrupter John Abraham (38 tackles, 16.5 sacks), who had nearly half of the team's total of 34 sacks, loose from his defensive end position. The Pro Bowl snub is certain to command double teams on Saturday, meaning players such as end Chauncey Davis (38 tackles, 4 sacks), who garnered a sack in each of the last two games, will need to be effective in getting pressure. The Falcons gave up an average of 220.4 passing yards per game (21st overall) for the year and don't force a lot of turnovers, having snared only 10 interceptions.

The Falcons can be quite vulnerable against the run as well, with opponents having averaged 4.9 yards per carry on the club's 25th-ranked rushing defense (127.5 ypg). The unit surrendered 202 yards on the ground to St. Louis last Sunday, with the Rams' Steven Jackson gashing his way for 161 yards and a pair of scores. Atlanta missed the presence of stabilizing strong safety Lawyer Milloy (93 tackles, 1 INT), who sat out the contest with a back injury that isn't expected to keep the 35-year-old from missing Saturday's matchup. Another decorated veteran, weakside linebacker Keith Brooking (102 tackles), led the team in tackles and heads up a decent linebacking group that has promising rookie Curtis Lofton (94 tackles, 1 sack) manning the middle.

It remains to be seen as to whether Arizona has the tools to exploit one of the Falcons' chief defensive weaknesses, since the Cardinals averaged a league-low 73.6 rushing yards per week and a paltry 3.5 yards per attempt during the regular season. However, the club showed more commitment to the ground game in last Sunday's 34-28 win over Seattle and got very encouraging results. Veteran running back Edgerrin James (514 rushing yards, 3 TD, 12 receptions), used sparingly in the second half after losing his starting job to rookie Tim Hightower, was re-inserted into a featured role against the Seahawks and responded with 100 yards on only 14 touches. Hightower (399 rushing yards, 10 TD, 34 receptions) has flashed ability in short-yardage situations and as a receiver in his first season, but wasn't as effective in an every-down player.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This is an area in which the Falcons have excelled. Atlanta's coverage units set a new NFL season record by yielding a mere 49 punt return yards in 16 games, Norwood (25.7 avg.) produced four kick runbacks of over 40 yards and is a true game-breaker in that area, and rookie Harry Douglas (11.9 avg., 1 TD) was equally as dangerous taking back punts. Kicker Jason Elam showed no signs of decline in his 16th NFL season, as the ex-Bronco made good on 29-of-31 field goal attempts.

The Cardinals haven't been as adept on special teams, having ranked 31st out of the league's 32 clubs in net punting (34.1 avg.) and allowing lousy averages of 13.1 yards per punt return and 25 yards on kickoffs. Reserve running back J.J. Arrington has been one bright spot, as the fourth-year pro averaged 25.6 yards on kick returns and had a touchdown in a key midseason win over Dallas. Strong-legged kicker Neil Rackers has been spotty throughout his nine-year career, but he's converted 25-of-28 three-point tries this season.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Although this showdown may lack the appeal of some of this weekend's playoff games because neither team has a strong national profile, it should provide plenty of excitement, as both offenses shouldn't have too many problems moving the football and scoring points. While Warner's experience edge over Ryan and Arizona's homefield advantage are definite pluses for the NFC West champs, the Falcons are the more balanced and fundamentally sound of these two postseason newcomers. Look for Atlanta to limit the opportunities of Warner and his star- studded receivers with its effective ball-control philosophy, and for the Cardinals to unsuccessfully prevent Abraham from delivering at least one momentum-turning play that will help the Falcons extend their amazing season.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Falcons 34, Cardinals 27