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07/23/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Suppan takes another crack at his first win of the season this afternoon when the St. Louis Cardinals open a three-game series with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Suppan has gone 0-3 with a 4.20 earned run average in six starts with the Cardinals following his release from the Milwaukee Brewers. He had been 0-2 with a 7.84 ERA in 15 appearances with the Brewers.
The 35-year-old righty last toed the rubber on Sunday against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but did not get a decision, despite a solid performance that saw him surrender a run and five hits in six innings of his team's 5-4 win.
Suppan lost to the Cubs back on April 23 while with Milwaukee and is 6-10 lifetime against them with a 3.95 ERA in 25 starts.
St. Louis will need a big start from its veteran hurler tonight if it is going to get back in the win column following a 2-0 loss in 11 innings on Thursday to Philadelphia.
Adam Wainwright extended his scoreless innings streak to 25 after giving up six hits while fanning six in six frames for the Cardinals, who had an eight- game win streak stopped. St. Louis advanced just one runner past first base for the duration of the game and had just three baserunners overall.
"I don't worry about this loss," Wainwright said. "We won seven out of eight against two really good clubs. We should be excited about this homestand...It was just one game we lost in extra innings."
With Kyle McClellan (1-3) on to begin the 11th for St. Louis, Placido Polanco put the Phils ahead with a solo home run. They then tacked a run on later in the frame.
Chicago, meanwhile, also enters on a sour note after dropping two of three to the Houston Astros, including a 4-3, 12-inning setback in Wednesday's rubber match.
Bob Howry (1-3) took the loss after allowing two runs on a pair of hits while recording only one out for the Cubs, who have lost three of five.
Chicago, which is 11 games back of the Cardinals for first place in the National League Central, had a chance to win this one, but it stranded runners at second and third in the 11th after Derrek Lee flied out to end the frame.
"There's no secret we're in a bad spot," said Lee of the Cubs position in the standings. "We need to rack up as many wins as possible and the best way to go about that is winning series. Today we had a chance to win one and we let it slip away."
Heading to the hill for the Cubs this afternoon will be righty Randy Wells, who is 4-7 with a 4.33 ERA. Despite tossing seven scoreless innings on Saturday in Philadelphia, Wells did not get a decision in his team's 4-1 setback.
Wells, who is 0-2 in three appearances (two starts) against the Cards, has a 1.66 ERA over his past three starts, but has just one win in his last 14 outings.
St. Louis took two of three from the Cubs earlier in the season at Wrigley.
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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