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07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of National League divisional front-runners get together for a potential playoff preview tonight when the Central-leading Cincinnati Reds host the East-leading Atlanta Braves in the first of three at Great American Ball Park.
The Reds hold a half-game edge on the St. Louis Cardinals in the Central after taking two of three games from Milwaukee in a series that ended with a 10-2 Reds win on Wednesday.
The Braves, meanwhile, are 2 1/2 games up on the streaking Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia has cut into the lead with an eight-game win streak while the Braves have dropped four of six, including a series finale to Washington Thursday.
Cincinnati sends emerging ace Johnny Cueto to the mound in the opener in search of fifth straight win and with a chance to equal his career high in victories. The third-year Dominican export improved to 10-2 on the season with eight innings of scoreless four-hit ball in a 7-0 defeat of Houston on July 24.
The triumph lowered his earned run average to 3.18 and marked his sixth straight unbeaten start since a 1-0 loss at Seattle on June 18. His opposition batting average this season - .247 - is 12 points below his career clip and 15 points better than the .262 average he allowed last season.
For the Braves, right-hander Kris Medlen makes his second straight start after a trip to the bullpen and seeks his first win since July 7. A 24-year-old Californian, Medlen tossed six innings and allowed five runs on eight hits while getting a no-decision in Atlanta's 10-5 win at Florida on July 24.
It was his first game-opening assignment after four straight trips from the bullpen, during which he allowed six hits and four runs across five innings between July 11 and 21.
The former 10th round draft pick - 2006 - is 4-1 in 15 road games this season with a 4.05 ERA in 53 1/3 innings.
He has never faced the Reds.
On Thursday, Ian Desmond and Adam Dunn each homered, as the Nationals edged the Braves, 5-3, in the rubber match of a three-game series.
Derek Lowe (10-9) took the loss after allowing four runs on five hits in five innings. Matt Diaz hit a two-run homer for the Braves.
On Wednesday, Brandon Phillips hit his fourth career grand slam while Joey Votto went 3-for-5 with a home run, powering the Reds to a 10-2 victory over Milwaukee.
Phillips, who had two hits, slugged his first grand slam since 2007. Miguel Cairo went 2-for-4 with a walk and two RBI for the Reds, who went 4-2 on their road trip.
Cincinnati scored its runs in bursts, plating five in the sixth and eighth innings. Rookie Travis Wood (1-1) benefited from the first surge, getting his first major league win after allowing two runs in five innings. He gave up five hits, walked one and struck out six.
Atlanta swept a two-game set from the Reds earlier in the year after the Reds won six of the nine matchups in 2009.
<< Royals continue set with Orioles in Kansas City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles hope a flurry of changes can help
lead to more results like the team produced on Thursday.
The revamped club will set its sights on a second straight victory over the
Kansas City Royals, who'll be out
<< With trade rumors swirling, ChiSox start set with Oakland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox have been an awfully tough team to
beat over the past two months, and the current American League Central leaders
have been virtually invincible at U.S. Cellular Field during that time period.
Chicago
<< Giants send Lincecum to the hill versus Dodgers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Lincecum goes after win No. 11 this evening when the
San Francisco Giants open a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers
at AT&T Park.
Lincecum has not received a decision in either of his last two outing
<< Slumping Diamondbacks visit Mets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The slumping Arizona Diamondbacks head to New York in hopes
of notching a rare road win when they open a three-game weekend series with
the Mets at Citi Field.
The Diamondbacks, now 24 games off the pace in the National Le
Flames ink White >>
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Calgary Flames signed defenseman Ian White
to a one-year contract on Friday.
White was part of the blockbuster deal at last season's trade deadline that
saw blueliner Dion Phaneuf heading from Calgar
Oswalt to make debut as red-hot Phils head to Washington >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the second straight season, the Philadelphia Phillies
have acquired one of the top available pitchers prior to the non-waiver trade
deadline. The timing couldn't be better, as the club has used a season-high
winning strea
Astros to unveil Happ in opener with Brewers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nobody expects new Houston Astros starter J.A. Happ to
replace the traded Roy Oswalt, yet that is what the young left-hander must do
tonight.
One day after getting dealt to the Astros in a deal that sent Oswalt to the
Phi
Cards hope for boost from Carpenter in battle with Bucs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - St. Louis' bats have failed the Cardinals on more than one
occasion over the club's current funk. With Chris Carpenter set to take the
hill tonight versus Pittsburgh, those struggles might be forgiven tonight.
Carpenter wi
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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