Langer among the leaders at Senior British

Golf Betting Lines

07/22/2010 - Carnoustie, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bernhard Langer posted a four-under 67 on Thursday to share the first-round lead with Jay Don Blake and Carl Mason at the Senior Open Championship.

Bruce Vaughan, the 2008 winner, Mark Wiebe and Dan Forsman are knotted in fourth place at three-under 68 at a wind-swept Carnoustie.

Tom Watson, who won his first of five claret jugs at Carnoustie back in 1975, struggled on Thursday with a three-over 74, but is still in the hunt for a fourth Senior Open title.

While Watson has been one of the most prolific winners in both British Open and Senior Open history, Langer was never able to hoist the claret jug in his younger days.

Langer, a two-time Masters champion, has never even earned a major title on the Champions Tour, despite being the two-time reigning Player of the Year and leading money winner.

"To put four good rounds together here, in the red numbers, you need to play some extremely good golf," said Langer, a 10-time winner on the Champions Tour, including two this year.

Langer started well with a birdie at the first, then parred his next five holes. The German finished off his opening nine with three consecutive birdies to make the turn at four-under par.

Langer parred his first four of the back nine, then played classic links golf en route to a birdie at the par-five 14th. He putted from well off the green, but lagged up close and tapped in for the birdie to reach five-under par for the championship.

The Hall of Famer immediately lost that stroke thanks to a bogey at the 15th. Langer parred out and certainly didn't mind the tough close to his opening round.

"I'm very happy with it," acknowledged Langer. "I played very well. I kept the ball in play, I drove it pretty good and hit a number of fairways. When I didn't hit the fairway, I was either fortunate enough to get a reasonable lie or miss some trouble and hit those shots out of the rough pretty good. Made a few putts and hit my irons fairly close."

Blake had an up and down front side with two birdies and a bogey. He did most of his damage at the start of the second nine with three birdies in a four- hole span from No. 10.

Like Langer, Blake reached five-under par with a birdie at the par-four 17th. Blake fell victim to the demanding closing hole and walked off with a bogey to fall into a tie for first.

"I just tried to execute myself around the golf course and be patient," said Blake. "It's a golf course that you can't be aggressive because everything runs up to the pin so much that you can't fly it to the flags like we are used to over in the courses we play in America."

Mason, an Englishman, played in the afternoon on Thursday and had a spectacular front nine with five birdies and no bogeys. Trouble loomed right away on the back with a double-bogey at the 10th, but he got those strokes back with birdies at 12 and 14.

Following in the footsteps of his fellow co-leaders, Mason was five-under, but Carnoustie got him late. He bogeyed the par-four 15th to fall back into the tie for the lead.

Mason may not be a household name in the U.S., but he has been downright dominant on the European Senior Tour. He won the Bad Ragaz PGA Seniors Open in early July and that tied him with Tommy Horton for most wins on that circuit with 23.

"If this was the 24th, that would be something special, wouldn't it?" noted Mason. "I was thrilled to bits the way I played, I played great. Best I've played for a good few weeks, so that was good. I felt good, and I started rolling in the putts and hit some great shots."

U.S. Ryder Cup captain Corey Pavin, Sam Torrance, John Cook, Mike Donald, Jeff Sluman and Larry Mize, who won the last Champions Tour event, the Montreal Championship, are tied for seventh place at two-under 69.

NOTES: Defending champion Loren Roberts shot an even-par 71 and is tied for 19th place...Boonchu Ruangkit leads the European Senior Tour Order of Merit, but shot a four-over 75 on Thursday and is tied for 61st.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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