Shaky Colts Need to Heat Up Against Dolphins

Football Betting Lines

12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indianapolis Colts will have one final chance to build some sorely-needed momentum for the upcoming playoffs this Sunday, when the reeling AFC South champions conclude their regular season by hosting the Miami Dolphins.

It wasn't that long ago when the Colts were squarely in the driver's seat towards obtaining home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. That's now an impossibility, thanks to losses in four of the team's last six games, and the chances of Indianapolis receiving a bye for next week's Wild Card round have been greatly reduced as well because of that recent free-fall.

The Colts can still earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but only with a win over the Dolphins coupled with a Baltimore loss to Buffalo on Sunday. If Indianapolis falls to Miami and New England defeats Tennessee in its finale, the Colts would slip all the way to the fourth seed.

In reality, Indy doesn't have a whole lot of problems to fix as its heads into the postseason. Just one giant one.

While the Colts' high-scoring offense has played at an elite level all year long, a defense that has been helpless against opposing rushing attacks has been the root of the club's late-season collapse.

Indianapolis is surrendering an NFL-worst average of 174.5 rushing yards per game on the season and has yielded a pathetic 261.7 yards per contest on the ground during its three latest losses. In their most recent outing, the Colts allowed the normally non-threatening Ron Dayne to pile up a career-high 153 yards, a contributing factor to Houston's 27-24 upset victory last Sunday.

There will be no postseason appearance for the Dolphins for a fifth consecutive year, but they have at least shown a willingness to play the role of spoiler. Miami took the playoff-hopeful Jets to the wire on Christmas night before having its holiday ruined by a last-minute scoring drive that lifted New York to an exciting 13-10 win.

All of the Dolphins' points came in the fourth quarter with Cleo Lemon at the controls. The little-known quarterback replaced an ineffective Joey Harrington in the second half for the second straight week and completed 11-of-16 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown, a performance which earned Lemon his first career start under center on Sunday.

SERIES HISTORY

Miami owns a 44-22 advantage in its all-time regular season series against Indianapolis, but was a 23-17 home loser when the teams last met, in 2003. The Dolphins won the previous meeting, taking a 21-13 decision at the RCA Dome in 2002. The Dolphins are 5-0 in Indianapolis since suffering a 41-0 loss there during the 1997 campaign.

In addition to the regular season series, the teams have met twice in postseason play. Miami was a 23-17 overtime winner in a 2000 AFC First-Round Playoff at Dolphin Stadium (the franchise's most recent postseason victory), and also defeated the Baltimore Colts (21-0) in the 1971 AFC Championship.

Colts head coach Tony Dungy is 3-1 in his career against the Dolphins, including 1-1 since coming to Indianapolis in 2002. Saban will be meeting both Dungy and the Colts for the first time as a head coach.

DOLPHINS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE

Miami has averaged a mere 15.9 points per game for the season, with the team's year-long instability at the quarterback position a primary culprit for that subpar output. Harrington (2,236 passing yards, 12 TD, 15 INT) has been downright brutal over the last two weeks. The former first-round pick mustered just 20 yards on 5-of-17 passing and was picked off twice before being replaced by Lemon in the Dolphins' 21-0 loss to Buffalo on December 17, then failed to move the offense during the first half of Monday's game. Lemon (202 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) clearly provided a spark against the Jets, displaying both a strong arm and good mobility in his relief role, but it remains to be seen how the raw 27-year-old will fare against a defense that will game-plan for him. Whoever is under center will have a quality group of receivers to work with, although Marty Booker (51 receptions, 701 yards, 6 TD), Miami's best big-play threat, has been hampered by an ankle sprain which caused him to miss the Jets game. Wideouts Chris Chambers (56 receptions, 638 yards, 4 TD) and Wes Welker (64 receptions, 664 yards, 1 TD) and athletic tight end Randy McMichael (58 receptions, 585 yards, 2 TD) ensure the Dolphins are in good hands even if Booker is unable to play, however. A bigger concern for Saban is an offensive line that has given up 39 sacks and may have its hands full with the Colts' speed rushers.

Dungy's defense emphasizes speed over size, a philosophy which has certainly had a negative impact versus the run but also gives Indianapolis one of the league's top units against the pass. The Colts have allowed the second-fewest passing yards (156.3 ypg) in the NFL as well as a respectable total of 15 touchdowns through the air. The defense is at its best when ends Dwight Freeney (27 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles) and Robert Mathis (64 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles) are generating constant pressure the way the duo mercilessly harassed Cincinnati's Carson Palmer two weeks ago. Indy failed to record a sack against Houston, however, which enabled the inconsistent David Carr to complete nearly 70 percent of his throws and not turn the ball over. Cornerbacks Nick Harper (71 tackles, 3 INT) and Jason David (50 tackles, 2 INT) aren't big, but each is adept at keeping the play in front of him.

The Dolphins rank just 26th in rushing yards (101.5 ypg), a surprising figure considering Saban usually places a strong emphasis on the ground game and Miami possesses an outstanding young back in Ronnie Brown (893 rushing yards, 5 TD). The former Auburn star returned from a three-game absence due to a broken hand and showed no ill effects from the layoff, slicing through the Jets for 110 yards on 18 carries last Monday. Bruising backup Sammy Morris (381 rushing yards, 1 TD) did a capable job filling in for Brown, and is averaging a solid 4.2 yards per carry on the season.

Brown could be in line for another big day if Indianapolis can't find a cure for its well-documented inability to contain opposing backs. A return to the field by standout free safety Bob Sanders (27 tackles, 1 INT) would definitely help matters. The 2005 All-Pro has played in only four games this season because of a lingering knee injury, but the Colts are hopeful he will be available on Sunday. Safeties Marlin Jackson (79 tackles, 1 INT) and Antoine Bethea (80 tackles, 1 INT) were far too busy in the Houston game, as the pair combined for 23 tackles while Dayne continually ran through the front seven. The star of an otherwise nondescript group of linebackers is weakside starter Cato June (2 INT, 0.5 sacks), who leads the club with 131 tackles and is also strong against the pass.

COLTS OFFENSE VS. DOLPHINS DEFENSE

Indianapolis has far fewer worries on the offensive end, where the Colts rank second in passing yards (268.4 ypg) and third in both total yards (378.1 ypg) and points scored (26.7 ppg). It's scary to think where Indy would be without quarterback Peyton Manning (4,115 passing yards, 29 TD, 9 INT), who set an NFL record by eclipsing the 4,000-yard mark for the seventh time in his brilliant career during last week's loss. Manning has also thrown seven touchdown passes over the last two games, five of which have gone to super veteran Marvin Harrison (90 receptions, 1,292 yards, 11 TD). The eight-time Pro Bowler Harrison had 112 yards on eight grabs against Houston, the third time in four weeks he has gone past the century mark. Reggie Wayne (80 receptions, 1,240 yards, 9 TD) is just as dangerous on the other side, and there's a possibility Manning could get another weapon back in tight end Dallas Clark (26 receptions, 311 yards, 4 TD), who is close to returning from a knee sprain that's kept him out of the last four contests. A rock-solid line anchored by Pro Bowl honorees Jeff Saturday and Tarik Glenn has surrendered a league-low 15 sacks.

The Dolphins will need to apply heat on Manning to keep Indy's high-powered offense in check. Luckily for Miami, rushing the passer is an area of strength. Jason Taylor (56 tackles, 13.5 sacks, 9 forced fumbles) has been the league's most dominant defensive end this season, and the leader of a defense that stands third overall with 47 sacks. Tackle Vonnie Holliday (65 tackles, 7 sacks) has also enjoyed an excellent campaign, while veteran Kevin Carter (42 tackles, 5.5 sacks) has been a force opposite Taylor as well. A sturdy secondary has contributed to Miami's No. 4 ranking in passing yards allowed (181.7 ypg), but the unit figures to be shorthanded on Sunday. Starting cornerback Andre' Goodman (41 tackles, 9 PBU) hurt his left shoulder versus the Jets and is unlikely to play, while reserve Eddie Jackson suffered a season-ending knee injury on special teams during the game.

Indianapolis has rotated running backs Joseph Addai (1,017 rushing yards, 7 TD) and Dominic Rhodes (599 rushing yards, 5 TD) throughout the season, but the younger and stronger Addai has clearly established himself as the No. 1 guy during the latter part of the year. The 23-year-old became the first rookie in 2006 to surpass the 1,000-yard barrier with his 15-carry, 100-yard effort against the Texans, and has averaged a terrific five yards per rush behind the Colts' sturdy front wall. Addai has added 296 receiving yards on 37 grabs, while Rhodes (36 receptions, 251 yards) is a fine pass-catcher as well. For the year, Indianapolis owns the NFL's 18th-rated rushing offense (109.7 ypg).

Miami counters the Colts' effective ground attack with a defense that has surrendered just 100.1 rushing yards per game (seventh overall) and hasn't let an opposing back reach the century mark since Green Bay's Ahman Green did so back in Week 7. Holliday and massive tackle Keith Traylor (35 tackles, 4 sacks) often control the line of scrimmage, and allow relentless middle linebacker Zach Thomas (153 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT) to roam free and pile up stops. Traylor injured his knee in the Jets game, however, and may have to sit out the finale. Carter is an excellent run-stuffer as well, while Yeremiah Bell (62 tackles, 2 sacks, 13 PBU) has emerged as an impact player since taking over at strong safety in midseason.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Teams have discovered in the season's second half that the formula for success against the Colts consists of running the ball down their throats. Miami will no doubt stick to that game plan, which coupled with a terrific defense gives the Dolphins a very reasonable chance of coming out on top. Still, it's hard to go against the team that has a whole lot more on the line, especially when that team has Peyton Manning and is 7-0 at home this season. The Dolphins will make Indianapolis earn it, but Miami's deficiencies on offense prevent the upset from taking place.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Colts 17, Dolphins 16

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Albert Pujols to be This Year's Home Run Champ Says Online Sportsbook

Barry Bonds is a 50-1 long shot to be this year's home run champ odds.  The favorite to be this year's home run champ is none other than Albert Pujols, however.

Now that Barry Bonds is signed and in Giants camp, it is on to his pursuit of all of sports most prestigious records: the all-time home run mark. Bonds sits just 21 homers shy of tying Hank Aaron for the career mark at 755. Word out of Giants’ camp is that Bonds is the healthiest he has been in a few years. Bonds is just two seasons removed from his injury riddled 2005 campaign where he played in only 14 games and hit only 5 home runs. He did come back last year and had a solid season hitting .270 with 26 bombs. All eyes will be on Bonds this spring and summer not only because of his home run chase but his highly publicized steroid abuse allegations. If and when Bonds breaks the record, he surely will not get the positive attention one should for breaking a record that was once thought of as “unbreakable”. Despite Bonds decent season last year, he is just 50-1 at MySportsbook.com to lead the MLB in long balls this season.

Not surprisingly, the favorites to go deep the most times this season are Albert Pujols 5-1, Ryan Howard 6-1, David Ortiz 8-1 and Alex Rodriguez 12-1. With 49 homers, Pujols finished second in the National League behind Howard (58). Pujols is considered the favorite due to the consistent power numbers that he has posted since breaking into the league in 2001. Also one must consider the fact that he played in 16 fewer games then Howard did due to an injury. Howard smashed 58 homers in his first complete season of big league play en route to the National League MVP odds award. He silenced his critics by successfully hitting left-handed pitching. Howard also displayed the ability to use his power to the opposite field. Two attributes which should keep Howard amongst the league leaders in long balls for years to come. From the American League representatives, David Ortiz leads the field. Ortiz was second in the majors last year with 54 home runs. Except for 1999 when he only played in 10 games, Ortiz has improved on his home run numbers each year he has been in the majors (1997).

Be sure to log onto online sports betting site MySportsbook.com to check out the odds for who will lead the MLB in home runs this season. Below is just a sample of the players listed. With the highest credit card rates in the industry, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on baseball this summer.

World Series odds

Adam Dunn 15-1

Albert Pujols 5-1

Alex Rodriguez 12-1

Alfonso Soriano 15-1

Andruw Jones 25-1

Barry Bonds 50-1

Carlos Delgado 40-1

David Ortiz 8-1

Jermaine Dye 40-1

Ken Griffey Jr. 100-1

Lance Berkman 40-1

Manny Ramirez 20-1

Richie Sexson 40-1

Ryan Howard 6-1

Travis Hafner 20-1

Vladimir Guerrero 40-1

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.

Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.