World Cup: Breaking down Group H

Soccer Betting Lines

06/04/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Spain captured the Euro 2008 title to end a 44-year drought in major competitions, and enters the 2010 World Cup as one of the favorites alongside Brazil.

Spain's starting 11 is easily the best in the World Cup. Yes, better than the five-time champion Brazilians.

Top-to-bottom, Spain has no weaknesses. Its entire roster is composed of star players. Fernando Torres and David Villa form the best attacking combo in the world. Cesc Fabregas, David Silva and Xavi are among the world-class midfielders at coach Vicente del Bosque's disposal. Carles Puyol and Sergio Ramos anchor the defense.

Heck, even in goal, Victor Valdes has never been used by Spain. He stars for Barcelona, in case you didn't know, but is third-string behind Iker Casillas and Pepe Reina.

Spain is one of the few countries with enough talent on the bench to field a separate team capable of competing in the tournament.

What Spain, which also won Euro 1964, has never done is succeed at the World Cup.

Spain's best finish was in 1950 in Brazil, when it finished fourth. Spain has not even advanced to the semifinals since.

Since 1950, Brazil has won the World Cup five times and finished second once. Germany has made seven finals and won three titles. Argentina and Italy each have two titles. England and France are the other winners since then.

Spain is in the best position in its history to finally lift the trophy, and leave the Netherlands as the most notable country without a title.

Spain should win Group H, which includes Chile, Honduras and Switzerland. In the knockout round, though, they have disappointed before.

For the last 60 years in the World Cup, to be exact.

Game of the Group: Chile vs. Switzerland (June 21)

Either Chile or Switzerland is likely to join Spain in the knockout stage, so a win in the second match of the group stage, when these countries with vastly contrasting styles collide, may determine their fate.

Chile is an attack-oriented team, and coach Marcelo Bielsa's side proved it in South American qualifying with 32 goals. Only Brazil scored more with 33.

Switzerland switched coaches since the last World Cup, with Ottmar Hitzfeld in charge in 2010, but remains a defense-first team.

The Swiss were eliminated from the 2006 World Cup without allowing a goal (it lost in the knockout stage to the Ukraine on penalties after a 0-0 draw), and will be searching for more success under Hitzfeld.

Chile is back in the World Cup for the first time since 1998 and on the heels of a second-place finish in qualifying behind Brazil, could be poised to make a run in South Africa.

Player to Watch: Fernando Torres (Spain)

One of the world's most lethal strikers, Torres really is a threat every time he touches the ball. However, Torres had a knee operation in April that makes him questionable for Spain's group-stage matches.

Even if Torres returns for group play, it's unclear how effective he'll be on the field after a long layoff. The 26-year-old has 23 goals in 72 matches for Spain, and averages just under a goal per game for Liverpool.

Spain won't need Torres' services to survive group play, but manager Vicente del Bosque needs a healthy Torres to lead his club to a second consecutive major title. Torres scored the game-winner against Germany in the 2008 Euro final, and has scored big goals for club and country for years.

Despite its wealth of talent, Spain needs Torres to win its first World Cup.

Breakout Player: Alexis Sanchez (Chile)

Sanchez broke into the national team when he was 17, and enters the World Cup at 21 having already played 28 times for Chile. Nicknamed "El Nino Maravilla" or "Wonder Boy," the 5-foot-7 forward is creative and great with the ball.

He's already scored 11 times for Chile, with three of those goals coming just ahead of the World Cup in warm-up games against Zambia and Israel. Sanchez is sure to start for coach Marcelo Bielsa in South Africa, and could easily wind up as the tournament's best young player.

Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson has reportedly been interested in the diminutive Chilean for a few years, and would like to sign him before the World Cup. If Sanchez doesn't leave Udinese before the World Cup, he could be on every big club's radar after it.

Predictions:

Group Winner: Spain

Spain won all three games in the group stage four years ago and probably wins all of its matches in the opening round this year as well. Eventual runner-up France knocked out Spain four years ago, but Chile, Honduras and Switzerland aren't capable of stopping this team from another knockout appearance.

Second Place: Chile

Chile was impressive in South American qualifying, finishing one point behind Brazil in the final standings. Whether Chile's aggressive style translates in South Africa is still an unknown, but this team is capable of another showing like in 1962, when it finished third as hosts.

Wwwherald Soccer Betting News


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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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